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FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report – September 18

What’s ahead in terms of pork exports and overall profitability, market analyst David Bauer explains.

The autumn season is knocking on the door and officially gets started Sept. 22, just before the third quarter hogs and pigs report next Thursday.

In this segment of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Provimi senior market analyst David Bauer tells us what to expect in that report, including a reduced breeding herd. As he points out, USDA’s weekly sow harvest continues to run strong and this has been the catalyst to discussions what this will mean for the sow herd come September 24.

Bauer notes that the June report alerted us that fall farrowing intention decisions made through spring and summer when values were in the low, mid and upper $40 range, were to farrow 5% less this fall. Over the past several weeks conversations put estimates either side of 200,000 fewer sows than last year at this time. If that 200,000 drop were to happen, it would be down about a 100,000 sows, or 1.5% from last quarter. Many of these decisions were made during times of dismal futures and dismal financial the conditions, and although the conditions haven't changed, what will the recent rally and hog future values do to the sentiment as we come into the report? Take a listen. Bauer explains.

A quick note on African swine fever in Germany. It was reported that four wild boar carcasses were found and one live pig shot that all tested positive. The first case found was of a female wild boar, which is significant. Female typically run in groups consist of three to four females and all their piglets. The significance here is that the dead female likely had contact with several pigs, and that is of concern when realizing that ASF is spread through contact with other pigs. Males typically lead more isolated lives and present less of the spread risk.

On pork exports this week, net weekly sales were a very large 50,600 metric tons, 68% over last week and 41% over the four-week average. Per the chart, Bauer is calling it the third largest weekly sale this year. What’s the word on profitability? Bauer fills us in.

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

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