Higher beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts partly offset lower pork production in Q4 2022, leading USDA to raise the forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production to 107.53 billion lbs. in the December “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report.
USDA raised the 2022 beef production forecast to 28.42 billion pounds (lbs.) due to higher expected cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. Pork production, however, was lowered to 27.06 billion lbs. due to lighter carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production were raised to 46.10 billion lbs. and 5.21 billion lbs., respectively, on current slaughter and hatchery data.
Egg production was raised slightly to 9.03 billion dozen on revised third-quarter data.
For 2023, USDA left the beef and pork production forecasts unchanged. Broiler production was raised on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year while turkey production was lowered for the first half of the year on recent discoveries of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Egg production was also lowered due to a slower expected pace of recovery. USDA only raised the 2023 total red meat and poultry production forecast slightly to 106.81 billion lbs.
USDA raised the 2022 and 2023 beef export forecast. The 2022 pork export forecast was lowered while 2023 was left unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 was raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports were lowered. Turkey exports was left unchanged.
USDA left price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers unchanged for 2022 and 2023. USDA has the 2022 and 2023 cattle price at $144.15/cwt. and $156/cwt., respectively. The hog price forecast for 2022 and 2023 is $71.33/cwt. and $67.00/cwt., respectively. The broiler forecast for 2022 and 2023 is $1.41/lb. and $1.31/lb., respectively.
The turkey price forecast for 2022 was lowered to $1.55/lb., but the forecast for 2023 was left unchanged at $1.53/lb. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were raised to $2.78/doz. and $1.94/doz. due to recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
USDA left its 2022 milk production forecast unchanged from last month at 227 billion lbs. while the 2023 production forecast was raised slightly to 229.5 billion lbs due to higher expected cow numbers and slightly more rapid growth in output per cow.
For 2022, USDA raised price forecasts for butter and cheese on recent prices and expectations of continued strength in demand. However, whey and NDM prices were unchanged. The Class III price was raised due to a higher cheese price, and the Class IV price was raised due to a higher butter price.
As for 2023, USDA raised the price forecasts for cheese and butter for continued demand strength but lowered the NDM and whey prices due to pressure from international markets. The higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price. The Class III price was raised while the Class IV price forecast was lowered, reflecting the lower NDM price, USDA said.
All things considered, USDA raised the 2022 all milk price forecast to $25.65/cwt. and the 2023 all milk price was raised to $22.70/cwt.