January 20, 2022
Modest changes were made to the U.S. meat production outlook this month, however USDA's January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates has dropped the forecast for U.S. pork exports considerably.
"We reduced our pork export forecast by 405 million pounds, so right now overall forecast is 7 billion pounds, and that reduction this month reflects primarily the fact that China has been buying less pork," says World Ag Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski.
China is buying less pork, not only from the United States, but also from other suppliers, Jekanowski says.
"By China buying less pork, that both reduces our own exports directly to China, but it also means that other countries that were exporting to China are now looking for other markets to market that pork and that is also competing with U.S. exports," he says.
Overall, the U.S. meat trade forecast is down 459 million pounds.
"For 2022, in terms of beef production we increased our beef production forecast by 160 million pounds. That mainly reflects higher than expected fourth quarter cattle placements that should be increasing supplies for slaughter later in the year, so that is reflected in the higher beef production," Jekanowski says.
"Pork production on the other hand, we pulled it back by 80 million pounds reflecting information that we got out of the Hogs and Pigs Report that was released late last month, that showed slower farrowing intentions for the first half of this year, and so should tighten up hog supplies for slaughter later in the year."
There were no month-over-month changes to turkey production, but broiler production is up, “reflecting strong prices and a strong first quarter pace for broiler slaughter," Jekanowski notes.
The January WASDE expects strong prices, especially on the hog side.
"Strong beef prices as well, supporting cattle prices, so we increased our steer price forecast for 2022 by $1.50/hundredweight, and didn't make any changes to our hog price forecast," says Jekanowski.
The report placed steer prices at $136.75/cwt and hogs at $60.25/cwt.
"Meat prices generally have been strong and a lot of that has been filtering back to livestock production level," Jenkanowski says. "Our broiler price forecast, we raised by 10.5 cents a pound, now at $1.12 per pound. That's again, more than a 10% increase in our broiler price forecast, and turkey price forecast, we raised by 2.3 cents per pound to 125.3 cents per pound."
Source: USDA, which is solely responsible for the information provided, and wholly own the information. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.
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