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October 21, 2022
With 18 days until the election, both parties are increasing their efforts to determine which party will control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Most election experts are predicting the Republicans will gain control of the House. At this time the Senate is too close to call.
History is not on the Democrats' side. In midterm elections since 1934, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The President's party has gained seats in the House only three times and in the Senate six times.
Senate: The Senate is currently 50-50, and this election is critical in determining who will be in control next year. There are 14 Democratic seats up for re-election and 20 Republican seats up for re-election. There are eight races that are considered toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There are five members of the Senate Agriculture Committee up for re-election. They are Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO), John Boozman (R-AR), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Thune (R-SD) and Ralphael Warnock (D-GA). The Bennet and Warnock races are considered toss-ups. Bennet is facing Joe O'Dea and Warnock is being challenged by Herschel Walker. Senator Pat Leahy (D-VT) is not running for re-election.
House: The Republicans need to gain five seats to regain control of the House of Representatives. Out of the 435 House seats, Real Clear Politics estimates there are only 37 toss-up seats. Of these seats, 32 are currently held by a Democratic member and five by Republicans.
In the House Agriculture Committee, there are a number of committee members facing tough races this election. They include Representatives Cindy Axne (D-IA), Angie Craig (D-MN), Sharice Davids (D-KS), Mayra Flores (R-TX), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Annie Kuster (D-NH), Al Lawson (D-FL), Tom O'Halleran (D-AZ), Kim Schrier (D-WA) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA).
2022 voter attitudes
Voter attitudes are key items both parties are following as we head into the November election.
The economy and inflation are by far the most important issue on voters' mind. Other issues voters have identified in polls include abortion, gun policy, crime and immigration.
Real Clear Politics most recent summary of surveys on voter attitudes (favorable versus unfavorable):
Direction of the Country: 26/66
Political Leaders Favorability:
President Biden: 45/53
Vice President Harris: 39/53
Donald Trump: 43/53
Speaker Pelosi: 35/57
House Republican Leader McCarthy: 30/44
Senate Majority Leader Schumer: 32/46
Senate Minority Leader McConnell: 20/58
Biden's Job Approval: 43/54 (Trump's approval rating in his second year was 42/53)
Source: P. Scott Shearer, who is solely responsible for the information provided, and wholly owns the information. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset. The opinions of this writer are not necessarily those of Farm Progress/Informa.
Vice President, Bockorny Group, Inc.
Scott Shearer is vice president of the Bockorny Group Inc., a leading bipartisan government affairs consulting firm in Washington, D.C. With more than 30 years experience in government and corporate relations in state and national arenas, he is recognized as a leader in agricultural trade issues, having served as co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for U.S.-China Trade and co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for Trade Promotion Authority. Scott was instrumental in the passage of China Permanent Normal Trade Relations and TPA. He is past chairman of the USDA-USTR Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Animals and Animal Products and was a member of the USAID Food Security Advisory Committee. Prior to joining the Bockorny Group, Scott served as director of national relations for Farmland Industries Inc., as well as USDA’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Congressional Affairs (1993-96), serving as liaison for the Secretary of Agriculture and the USDA to Congress.
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