USDA predicting record corn and soybean crops

USDA predicts record corn and soybean crops as most of the crops are in good to excellent condition; study shows means testing crop insurance would impact few; Trump’s economic plan unveiled. 

P. Scott Shearer, Vice President

August 15, 2016

3 Min Read
USDA predicting record corn and soybean crops

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is predicting record-high corn and soybean crops this year with corn production forecast at 15.2 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.06 billion bushels.

Corn production is estimated to increase 11% from last year and soybeans are 3% over 2015. Average corn yield will reach a record of 175.1 bushels per acre. NASS estimates 94.1 million acres of planted corn. USDA is projecting an average gate price of $3.15 per bushel, down from $3.60 for the current marketing year ending on Aug. 31.

Soybean yields are expected to average 48.9 bushels per acre which is a record. Growers are forecast to harvest 83.0 million acres of soybeans this year. Average cash price is estimated at $9.10 per bushel, down from $9.50 a bushel estimated in July.

NASS interviewed more than 22,000 producers across the United States for their latest production report.

USDA reports close to three-quarters of crops good to excellent condition
Nearly three-quarters of corn and soybean crops are rated in good to excellent condition, according to USDA’s latest Crop Progress report.

Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, says, “U.S. corn and soybean conditions are very close to records over the past two decades. The only year that corn was appreciably higher in condition was the then-record-setting year of 2004, when we easily set an all-time yield and production record. For soybeans, we’re running pretty much right on par with 2004 and 2014 in a virtual tie for first place over the last 22 years, going back to the mid-1990s.”

The Aug. 8 Crop Progress report shows the USDA rating 74% of this year’s corn crop in good to excellent condition. This is 4% above the same time last year. Seventy-two percent of the soybeans were reported in good to excellent condition. This is 9% above the same time last year.

Mean testing crop insurance affects small percent
Means testing crop insurance at $900,000 income eligibility limit (current for commodity programs) would affect less than 0.5% of farms and less than 1% of the premiums. This is according to a study by USDA’s Economic Research Service.

The cost of crop insurance and premium subsidies for high income producers were debated during the last farm bill and will be a major issue during consideration of the 2018 farm bill. A number of environmental and conservative organizations are preparing for the next farm bill already.

Trump’s economic plan goes after regulations and trade
Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, delivered his economic plan last week in Detroit.

A proposed moratorium would be placed on all new federal regulations and it would rescind the Waters of the United States rule and the Clean Power Plan regarding limits on carbon emissions from electric utilities.

Trump continued his strong criticism of various trade agreements. He reiterated again that he would withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement or have the United States withdraw from the agreement if “we don’t get a better deal.”

The economic plan would include three tax brackets for individuals (one fewer than the tax plan he released in September), limit taxes on all forms of business income to 15%, end the estate tax and would “exclude childcare expenses from taxation.” There were no estimates of the cost of this plan, but his original September proposal was estimated to cost $10 trillion over 10 years.

About the Author(s)

P. Scott Shearer

Vice President, Bockorny Group, Inc.

Scott Shearer is vice president of the Bockorny Group Inc., a leading bipartisan government affairs consulting firm in Washington, D.C. With more than 30 years experience in government and corporate relations in state and national arenas, he is recognized as a leader in agricultural trade issues, having served as co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for U.S.-China Trade and co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for Trade Promotion Authority. Scott was instrumental in the passage of China Permanent Normal Trade Relations and TPA. He is past chairman of the USDA-USTR Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Animals and Animal Products and was a member of the USAID Food Security Advisory Committee. Prior to joining the Bockorny Group, Scott served as director of national relations for Farmland Industries Inc., as well as USDA’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Congressional Affairs (1993-96), serving as liaison for the Secretary of Agriculture and the USDA to Congress.

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