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November 11, 2022
As of this morning there are still races that have yet to be called that will determine which party has control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The three outstanding Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada will determine which party will control the Senate. There is still a number of House seats that are too close to call. However, Republicans are expected to gain control of the House, but by a much narrower margin than expected.
Senate: Mail-in ballots are still being counted in Arizona and Nevada and will continue to be counted over the weekend and possibly into early next week. Currently in Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is leading Blake Masters (R), and in Nevada Adam Laxalt (R) is leading Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D).
Depending upon the outcomes of the Arizona and Nevada races, Senate control could be decided Dec. 6 when Georgia holds its runoff election between Senator Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R). In Georgia, a runoff election is held when a candidate does not obtain at least 50% of the vote.
There were nine Senate seats considered in play before the election: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Democrats have won Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Washington. Republicans have won Ohio and Wisconsin. Democrats gained one seat with John Fetterman (D) defeating Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Senator Pat Toomey (R) retired.
House: There are a number of Congressional races still too close to call. Republicans are still expected to take control of the House of Representatives, but by a much narrower margin than earlier predicted. Republicans need to gain five seats for control. The incumbent President's party on average loses 28 seats in an off-year election.
Midterm elections are a referendum on the incumbent President. Even facing headwinds because of the economy, inflation and President Biden's low approval ratings, Democrats did much better than anyone expected. A number of Democratic Senators and Representatives that were in tough races survived. The red wave that many Republicans, pollsters and political consultants were predicting never materialized.
The public voted in significant numbers throughout the country to let their voices be heard. Over 70% of the voters said they were either angry or dissatisfied with the state of the country and over 70% said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Exit polling found overwhelmingly the most important issues for voters were inflation and abortion. Other key issues included crime, gun policy and immigration.
A number of polls found that approximately 70% of voters in both parties believe that democracy in the United States is "threatened." However, they cannot not agree on "what the threat is." Over 95% of Democrats say Biden legitimately won the election, while 67% of Republicans express skepticism about his victory.
Impact of election on House and Senate Agriculture Committees
Out of the 50 members of the House Agriculture Committee, nine members were either defeated or did not run for re-election.
There are still two races to be determined.
There were six members of the Senate Agriculture Committee up for re-election. Senators Mike Bennet (D-CO), John Boozman (R-AR), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Hoeven (R-ND) and John Thune (R-SD) won re-election. Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is in a runoff election on Dec. 6 against Republican Herschel Walker.
Possible rail strike delayed
A possible rail strike in November is being less likely as the rail carriers and a major rail union agreed to extend the negotiating deadline from Nov. 19 to early December.
Source: P. Scott Shearer, who is solely responsible for the information provided, and wholly owns the information. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset. The opinions of this writer are not necessarily those of Farm Progress/Informa.
Vice President, Bockorny Group, Inc.
Scott Shearer is vice president of the Bockorny Group Inc., a leading bipartisan government affairs consulting firm in Washington, D.C. With more than 30 years experience in government and corporate relations in state and national arenas, he is recognized as a leader in agricultural trade issues, having served as co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for U.S.-China Trade and co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for Trade Promotion Authority. Scott was instrumental in the passage of China Permanent Normal Trade Relations and TPA. He is past chairman of the USDA-USTR Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Animals and Animal Products and was a member of the USAID Food Security Advisory Committee. Prior to joining the Bockorny Group, Scott served as director of national relations for Farmland Industries Inc., as well as USDA’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Congressional Affairs (1993-96), serving as liaison for the Secretary of Agriculture and the USDA to Congress.
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