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USDA Drops Feedgrain Stocks, Raises Hog Prices

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for Aug. 12 projects 2013/14 U.S. feedgrain supplies to trend lower, with corn production forecast lowered 187 million bushels to 13.8 billion. The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 154.4 bushels per acre, is down 2.1 bushels from last month’s projection.

Corn stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower, with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports.

Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels with the smaller crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supply and increased foreign competition.

The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel.

Soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 3.255 billion bushels, down 165 million bushels due to lower harvested area and yields. The first survey projection of soybean yield of 42.6 bushels per acre is 1.9 bushels below last month’s projection but 3 bushels above last year’s drought-reduced yield.

Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 5% below last month based on the lower production forecast. With reduced supplies and higher prices, U.S. soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 1.385 billion.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $10.35 to $12.35 per bushel, up 60 cents. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345, up $15 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast 44 to 48 cents per pound, down 3 cents at the midpoint.

WASDE raised the total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2013 from last month, fueled by higher beef production that offsets lower pork, broiler and turkey production.

Pork production is reduced largely reflecting lower slaughter in the third quarter.

The 2013 pork export forecast is down slightly, reflecting second-quarter data, with 2014 unchanged.

Hog prices are raised for 2013 as demand strength is expected to continue through the end of the year.   

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