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Total meat production lowered; pork unchanged

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Aug. 12 calls for lower total meat production for 2015 and 2016, compared to last month’s projections. This is despite the projections for pork production for this year and next being unchanged, 24.6 billion pounds and 24.7 billion pounds, respectively.

Estimates for beef production for 2015 and 2016 were lowered due to a combination of slower marketings of fed cattle and reduced cow slaughter. Broiler production for 2015 is lowered from last month as growth in the number of eggs set and chicks placed has slowed. Weaker forecast broiler prices are expected to limit production growth as well. No change is made to 2016 production. Turkey production is raised for 2015 based on hatchery data. Egg production for 2015 is lowered based on second quarter production, but no change is made to the forecasts for the remainder of 2015 and 2016.

The beef export forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are lowered from last month on the relative strength of the dollar and expectations of weak demand. Beef imports are raised on strength in demand for processing-grade beef. Pork and broiler imports and exports are adjusted to reflect June trade data. The turkey export forecast is reduced for 2015 and 2016 as supplies remain tight.

Hog prices are reduced for 2015 from $50 to $51 per hundredweight in July to $49 to $50 this month as supplies are large. First quarter 2016 prices are projected to land between $46 and $50 per hundredweight, while second quarter 2016 prices are projected $49 to $53.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on competition from relatively lower red meat prices. Turkey prices for 2015 are raised from last month on tighter supplies. Egg prices for both 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month on tight supplies and prices to date.

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