Source: U.S. Meat Export Federation
With the European Union and Japan recently signing a comprehensive economic partnership agreement and the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership moving toward implementation, the U.S. Meat Export Federation has prepared an initial assessment of the potential U.S. pork and beef industry losses that could result from Japan’s participation in these agreements.

USMEF Economist Erin Borror explains that the EU is already Japan’s largest supplier of frozen pork cuts, and has recently made gains in the ground seasoned pork category. Canada, which is a CPTPP participant, is the United States’ largest competitor in Japan’s chilled pork market.

On the beef side, Australia already has a significant tariff rate advantage in Japan through a bilateral trade agreement, but this gap will widen further under the CPTPP. Beef from Canada, New Zealand and Mexico will also enjoy more favorable market access in Japan once the CPTPP is implemented.

USMEF anticipates that both the Japan-EU EPA and CPTPP could enter into force by April 2019, at which point all major non-U.S. suppliers of pork and beef to Japan will have preferential duty access. Japan, Mexico and Singapore have already ratified CPTPP, and once the agreement has been ratified by six participating countries, it will enter into force after 60 days. While no specific timeline has been established for ratification of the Japan-EU EPA, there is a good chance it could enter into force prior to the next Japanese fiscal year, which begins April 1, 2019.

Listen to Borror explain the situation U.S. red meat producers face: