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USDA again lowers red meat and poultry production forecast

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Higher beef and turkey production offset by lower pork and broiler production.

USDA once again lowered its 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry production in the latest “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report. The forecast of 1.07 billion pounds was lowered slightly from last month as higher forecast beef and turkey production more than offset lower projections for pork and broilers, the agency said.

The beef production forecast was raised from the previous month to 27.57 million pounds on higher fed and non-fed cattle slaughter. Pork production, on the other hand, was lowered to 27.32 million pounds on a slower pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights.

On the poultry side, broiler production was lowered to 45.23 million pounds on lower slaughter to date and a slower-than-previously-expected recovery in hatchability. Turkey production forecasts were raised on early-year hatchery data. The egg production forecast was reduced on slower expected growth in first-half production.

USDA raised fed-cattle prices to $139.50/cwt. on firm packer demand and declining inventories of fed cattle. Hog prices were raised to $71.00/cwt. on observed prices to date and expected strength in demand. Broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts were raised on current prices and relatively slow production growth.

USDA also lowered the milk production forecast for 2022 was lowered from last month due to lower dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow.

Price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey were raised from the previous month on current prices, lower expected production, and continued demand strength. With higher product prices, both Class III and the Class IV prices were raised. The 2022 all milk price forecast was increased to $25.05/cwt.

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