Researchers with the USDA Economic Research Service are forecasting Japan's pork imports to increase between 3.6 and 13.9% by 2028 due to the country's trade agreements in place. Based upon the Global Trade Analysis Project model, the researchers estimate this uptick could lead to an additional $281 million of U.S. pork exports being shipped to Japan.

Japan currently produces 50% of the pork that it consumes through domestic production, however ERS points out that could soon change as domestic pork producers face increased competition from foreign competitors, putting downward pressure on Japan's pork industry and forcing producers out of the business. In the next six years, Japan's pork production is predicted to drop between 4.2 and 11.8%.

Authors Eric Davis, Ethan Sabala, Dylan Russell and Jayson Beckman note that changes in Japan's recent trade agreements could boost the competitiveness of trade partners in the country's pork market. Japan has ratified trade agreements with the United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Comprehensive as well as the Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in place with Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

"This potential boost in foreign competitiveness could result in lower domestic production, higher import volumes, and thus increased availability of lower-cost foreign pork for Japanese consumers."

The researchers note these changes can be seen in the following model estimates that assume the gate price system imposes a burden equal to a 10% ad valorem tariff. The estimated changes in value in 2028, relative to the 2018 baseline, are:

Additionally, the researchers examined the outlook for U.S. pork exports — if the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement did not exist and the United States was subject to Japan's World Trade Organization gate price tariff system.

"In this hypothetical scenario, results indicate that the United States would lose a large portion of its market share to Japan's other trade agreement partners, with the 2028 U.S. market share falling from 34 to 23%. The total value of U.S. pork exports to Japan also would decline by $385.9 million from 2018 levels."