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Meat and poultry production forecast lowered

SweetyMommy/iStock/Getty Images cattle in livestock auction barn
USDA lowers pork production forecast but slightly raises beef production.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture slightly lowered its 2022 forecast for red meat and poultry production from last month to 106.46 billion lbs. due to lower pork and broiler production. According to the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” report, pork production was lowered to 27.16 billion lbs. on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter in June as well as lower expected second-half carcass weights. Broiler production was lowered to 45.30 billion lbs. on Q2 slaughter data but was partly offset by higher expected production in the third quarter, the agency noted.

Beef production was raised slightly to 27.92 billion lbs. USDA said lower expected carcass weights in the second half and lower third-quarter slaughter more than offset by higher Q4 slaughter.

USDA also forecast turkey production higher at 5.36 billion lbs. while egg production was raised to 9.05 billion dozen from last month based on recent production data.

For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised to 105.48 billion lbs. USDA raised pork production based on 2022 second-half farrowing intentions reported in USDA’s “Quarterly Hogs and Pigs” report, and expectations that farrowings in the first half of 2023 will be modestly higher. The beef forecast was lowered slightly on lower expected carcass weights in early 2023. USDA said its “Cattle” report, scheduled to be released July 22, will provide an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention and the 2022 calf crop.

USDA left broiler, turkey, and egg forecasts were left unchanged from last month.

Beef import forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were unchanged from last month while the export forecasts were raised for both years on firm international demand. Pork import forecasts were raised for both 2022 and 2023 on the current pace of trade and firm U.S. demand. Exports were reduced for 2022 but USDA said expected strength in foreign demand early in 2023 supports a slight increase in exports for that year. Broiler and turkey exports for 2022 were raised on recent data; no changes were made to 2023 forecasts.

Cattle price forecasts for 2022 were raised to $141.30/cwt. on reported second quarter prices and expected strength of packer demand in the third quarter. The forecasts for 2023 prices were unchanged. USDA raised the 2022 hog price forecast  to $70.80/cwt. on second-quarter prices, but no changes were made to second-half forecasts. For 2023, hog prices were lowered on the higher production forecast.

The broiler price forecast for 2022 was lowered to $1.53/lb. on current price data; no change was made to the 2023 broiler price forecast. Turkey price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were raised on current prices and expectations of continued demand strength. The 2022 and 2023 egg price forecasts were raised on current price strength.

Milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were lowered to 226 billion lbs. and 228.3 billion lbs., respectively, from last month due to slower expected growth in milk per cow. USDA’s “Cattle” report, to be released July 22, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.

With a lower cheese price, USDA lowered the Class III price but raised the Class IV price due to higher butter prices. The all milk price for 2022 was lowered to $26.15/cwt. For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter, and NDM were raised on expected lower production, but the price forecast for whey was lowered on expected weaker international prices. With higher cheese, butter prices, and NDM prices, the Class III and Class IV price forecasts were raised. The 2023 all milk price forecast was raised to $24.15/cwt.

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