U.S. pork exports in November trended lower year-over-year, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, while beef exports continued on a record pace.

November export data was released about one month later than usual due to the recent government shutdown, and year-end 2018 data is expected to be available in early- to mid-March.

November pork exports totaled 206,852 metric tons, down 8% year-over-year, while value fell 12% to $538.7 million as retaliatory duties in key markets continue to generate headwinds for U.S. pork. For January through November, exports were steady with 2017’s record pace at 2.23 million mt and value was down 1% to $5.86 billion.

Trade barriers are also pressuring pork export value on a per-head basis. In November, export value per head slaughtered was $48.80, down 16% from November 2017. Through the first 11 months of 2018, per-head export value averaged $51.46, down 3%. Exports accounted for 24.5% of total November pork production and 22% for muscle cuts, down from 27.7% and 24.1%, respectively, in November 2017. For January through November, exports equated to 25.7% of total pork production (down from 26.5% in 2017) and 22.4% for muscle cuts (up slightly).

“2018 was truly a remarkable year for U.S. beef exports, which shattered previous records in both volume and value and reached new heights in several of our top markets,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “In the first half of the year, pork exports were also on a very positive trajectory but unfortunately U.S. pork has been heavily targeted for retaliation. We remain hopeful that these disputes can be resolved soon, so that U.S. pork can get back on a level playing field with its competitors.”

Beef exports totaled 112,842 mt in November, up 1% from a year ago, while value climbed 6% to $709.2 million. For January through November, exports reached 1.24 million mt, up 8% year-over-year and 6% above the record pace of 2011. At $7.63 billion, beef export value was up 16% and has already broken the full-year record set in 2017 ($7.27 billion).

Beef export value per head of fed slaughter is also on a record pace, averaging $322.97 in November (up 5% from a year ago) and $320.72 during the first 11 months of 2018 (up 14%). Exports accounted for 13.1% of total November beef production and 10.9% for muscle cuts, both steady with November 2017. For January through November, exports equated to 13.4% of total production and 11.1% for muscle cuts — up from 12.8% and 10.3%, respectively, in 2017. These numbers highlight the strong international demand for U.S. beef as exports are accounting for a larger share of growing U.S. production and are fetching higher prices, with some U.S. cuts trading at record prices in Asia.

Report notes• Export statistics refer to both muscle cuts and variety meat,unless otherwise noted.• One metric ton equals 2,204.622 pounds.• U.S. pork currently faces retaliatory duties in China and Mexico. China’s duty rate on frozen pork muscle cuts and variety meat increased from 12 to 37% in April and from 37 to 62% in July. Mexico’s duty rate on pork muscle cuts increased from zero to 10% in June and jumped to 20%in July. Beginning in June, Mexico also imposed a 15% duty on sausages and a 20% duty on some prepared hams.• U.S. beef faces retaliatory duties in China and Canada. China’s duty rate on beef muscle cuts and variety meats increased from 12% to 37%in July. Canada’s 10% duty, which also took effect in July, applies toHS 160250 cooked/prepared beef products.

Bright spots for U.S. pork include Korea, ASEAN, Latin America and Oceania
After a very solid start to 2018, November pork exports to leading volume market Mexico were lower year-over-year for the sixth consecutive month (61,344 mt, down 14%) while value fell 30% to $97.1 million. This pushed January-November export volume slightly below the record pace of 2017 at 717,618 mt (down 1%) while value was down 11% to $1.22 billion.

“The good news is that the U.S. continues to export strong quantities of hams, picnics and other pork cuts to Mexico,” Halstrom says. “The bad news is that instead of generating positive returns for the U.S. industry, 20% of these sales go directly into the Mexican Treasury in the form of tariffs. This is why it is critical that the dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs be resolved as soon as possible.”

January-November pork exports to China/Hong Kong were down 29% year-over-year in volume (324,623 mt) and fell 19% in value ($790.2 million). This region is by far the largest destination for U.S. pork variety meat, and these exports also declined by 29% in volume (209,090 mt) and dropped 17% in value ($555.5 million) as the 62% tariff rate makes it very difficult for U.S. pork to compete in China.

The combination of retaliatory tariffs in China and Mexico contributed to sharp decreases in ham and picnic primal values (down 19% and 22%, respectively, from June through December, compared to the same period in 2017). The decrease in values for these two primals averaged $9.95 per head for those seven months. China’s retaliatory tariffs have also heavily impacted prices for pork offals and have forced some products into rendering due to the lack of alternative markets. Lost value for feet and picnic hocks was at least $1.80 per head and losses are even worse when products that have been rendered are included. The cost of these retaliatory tariffs has been lost value of at least $11.75 per head on just hams, picnics and feet, or roughly $860 million in industry losses from June through December 2018.

Other key details from the January-November pork export results include:

Asian markets set pace, but beef export growth widespread
November was another strong month for U.S. beef exports to the key Asian markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while exports to the ASEAN region also increased sharply. For January through November, beef export highlights include:

Source: U.S. Meat Export Federation, which is solely responsible for the information provided, and wholly owns the information. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.