It does not appear that the shortfall in this fall’s hog slaughter has been due to market hogs being backed up on farms. Carcass weights in recent weeks have been even with or below last year’s level.

Upcoming trade negotiations with Japan are critical for the U.S. pork and beef industries, as all major competitors in the Japanese market will soon benefit from significant tariff reductions.

The largest Saturday slaughter of the year usually comes the Saturday after one of three holidays — Labor Day, Thanksgiving or Christmas.

I suspect the government’s hand will be forced in the December report if we are still at loggerheads with China and will have to break this barrier in the name of maintaining a straight face.

One of the most urgent takeaways from the September report Halstrom says is making sure the U.S. is on an equal playing field for market access.

Average weight across all hogs is best to watch if one is trying to determine production or monitor how production might be impacted by slaughter changes.

U.S. fresh and frozen pork products subject to tariffs have maintained same levels.

August exports accounted for 21.9% of total pork production, down from 23.1% a year ago, while the percentage of muscle cuts exported held steady at 19.2%.

Analysts say exports matter in terms of where pork prices go in 2019, but can’t forget to look toward domestic demand.

As bullish a story as African swine fever represents for U.S. hog producers, the spread of this disease represents a major problem down the road.