Sometimes the futures market, in rare instances, is simply not in tune or not capable of anticipating major changes in fundamental developments until they actually rear their head.
The national average negotiated barrow and gilt carcass price for plant delivered hogs on Friday’s afternoon report was $54.20 per hundredweight, the highest for any day since Nov. 12.
Pork exports could rise 6% this year to 6.3 billion pounds which Shagam says “would be a record in terms of our exports.”
African swine fever story will dominate the fundamental news before the end of this year.
Weights at the start of 2019 have been up slightly from last year. Milder spring weather should boost slaughter weights a bit before summer heat drives them down.
If you think we don’t know much about production losses in China; we know even less about pork demand in China.