Sometimes the futures market, in rare instances, is simply not in tune or not capable of anticipating major changes in fundamental developments until they actually rear their head.

The national average negotiated barrow and gilt carcass price for plant delivered hogs on Friday’s afternoon report was $54.20 per hundredweight, the highest for any day since Nov. 12.

Pork exports could rise 6% this year to 6.3 billion pounds which Shagam says “would be a record in terms of our exports.”

African swine fever story will dominate the fundamental news before the end of this year.

Weights at the start of 2019 have been up slightly from last year. Milder spring weather should boost slaughter weights a bit before summer heat drives them down.

If you think we don’t know much about production losses in China; we know even less about pork demand in China.

Hog weights are expected to increase in 2019, but with hog producer margins tight to negative, the increase in slaughter weight is likely to be small.

Pork industry will eventually feel the loss of some information but having daily slaughter and purchases and prices for hogs and pork will allow the industry to operate more-or-less smoothly.

While hog producers continue to bleed red ink as December closes out, the market projects positive margins heading into both the second and third quarters of 2019.

Nearly all news flashes, news items down the road should be positive. The futures market is very quick to sense these changes, these possible future developments.