The combination of a 0.6% increase in farrowings and a 2.6% increase in litter size yields a summer pig crop that is 3.2% larger than last year. This means winter hog slaughter is also likely to be up 3.2%, more or less.

China's pork producers and consumers shifting habits in reaction to African swine fever outbreak.

Although held back by China’s retaliatory duties on U.S. pork, exports to China/Hong Kong contributed mightily to the July volume and value records.

Despite retaliatory duties remaining in place, June also brought an encouraging rise in pork exports to China, which were the largest in more than three years.

Cool weather has certainly been one factor contributing to the increased weight but poor exports are likely the main factor.

Pork prices at retail in the latest reports indicate that pork prices were higher year-over-year led by bacon prices at the highest price at retail since October of 2017.

The export decline of 93 million pounds was led by a drop of 133 million pounds (20.8%) in shipments to Mexico. South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and China also cut their purchases by more than 10 million pounds each.