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FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report – October 30

Packers have high hopes for large weekly kills but COVID fears are resurfacing among plant workers, says Dave Bauer, Provimi senior market analyst.

This has been a week of strong kills, logging another day on Tuesday at 492,000 head. Packers continue to have high hopes each day, aiming for those 2.7 million head weekly kills. Still, there are some feelings that COVID fears may be creating concerns to labor again, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi. This latest resurgence of COVID cases in rural America, even though more in the non-processing community, doesn't keep plant workers from being concerned about being around crowds.

Over the past three Fridays, kills have averaged 487,000 head and approximately 260,000 head over the past three Saturdays. With those kinds of numbers this week, we would have a chance at 2.7 million head killed. That is, of course, if Thursdays 492,000 head estimate stands and isn't adjusted lower. Weekly runs of 2.7 million head seem to be getting harder to achieve, says Bauer.

Producer weights have plateaued over the past couple of weeks, around 214 lb. and packer weights have backed off a pound or so.  There has been an abrupt correction to prices. Depending on how the cutout finishes, the week will dictate packer appetite for market hogs come Monday. Pork exports on Thursday, put net 2020 sales at 29,000 metric tons with 2021 new sales of 7,000 metric tons, for a combined 35,000 metric tons of new forward sales. Bauer says it been a great week, for sure, and all in the absence of China only taking 2,500 metric tons of pork. What can we expect from China in the near term? What’s ahead in terms of profitability for producers? Bauer gives his thoughts in this latest episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

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