It seems we've learned just how little we know about the dynamics of what a global pandemic can do to our society and the supply chains that feed us and our world. As Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi points out in this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, a recent series of interviews with five hog industry economists suggested optimism heading into 2021, but also they all asked the question of whether we, as an industry, learned enough about what happens when we can't process and distribute what we produce? Put another way, said Bauer, will producers realize increasing supply is not the answer to what's ahead in the next couple of years. As China regains its ability to supply its own pork as it did before African swine fever, it will need to import less pork. Today, some 25 to 30% of our pork exports go to China.
On the topic of forward profitability, Bauer is more concerned about what 2021 brings in the way of stronger feed costs and what that does to forward profitability than pork demand. What’s possibly ahead? Take a listen.
These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.