Three legs supporting smoking hot feeder pig marketThree legs supporting smoking hot feeder pig market
Record high litter rates seem inconsistent with increasing disease pressure.
January 13, 2025

An old adage says, “Where there's smoke, there's fire.” Fire needs fuel, oxygen and an ignition source. These three are often referred to as the fire triangle. If any one of these components is missing, a fire cannot start or continue to burn.
The feeder pig market is smoking hot right now, and it has a triangle too. Its three components are expected market hog profit, changes in the U.S. pig crop and changes in Canadian feeder pig imports.
Feeder pig prices up double or more
Prices for early weaned 10-12 pound pigs ended 2024 remarkably strong and carried that momentum into 2025. That’s according to USDA’s National Direct Feeder Pig Report. For the week ending Jan. 10, USDA reported the weighted average price at $82.37 per head on a cash basis (Figure 1) and $76.24 per head on a formula basis. The price ranges were $52.50 - $95 and $49.51 - $90, respectively. During the same week last year, the cash price was $35.43 and the formula price was $43.43 with ranges of $11 - $45 and $35.06 - $53.93. Cash prices for 10-12-pound pigs more than doubled (up $46.94 per head or 132%) since last year.

Data source: USDA-AMS-LPGMN National Direct Feeder Pig Reports.
Cash prices for 40 pound feeder pigs averaged $98.98 per head with a range of $85.00 - $107 during the first full week of January 2025. The weighted average price was 100% above the same week last year, or $49.42 per head higher.
The profitability expectations driver
Higher expected market hog prices are helping support higher feeder pig prices. Typically, prices for 10-12 pound pigs reach a seasonal high in January or February. Forty-pound pigs reach a seasonal price high in March or April. Knowing the elasticity of pig prices with respect to market hog prices can help in projecting how much higher pig prices could go from these early January heights.
A working paper, “Production Dynamics and Disruption Responses in the Pork Supply Chain: A Structural Model of Hog and Pig Markets” by Ezra Butcher and Lee Schulz finds that a 1% rise in expected market hog prices will lift cash prices for 10-12 pound pigs 1.196%. Similarly, a 1% rise in expected market hog prices will hike cash prices for 40 pound pigs 1.875%. The lesser lift for 10-12 pound pigs says they are less sensitive to changes in expected market hog prices than 40 pound pigs. Time to market could play a role here as it is roughly five weeks longer for buyers of 10-12 pound pigs compared to buyers of 40 pound pigs.
A 10-12 pound pig purchased in January will be marketed as a finished hog in July. Using an $82 per head purchase price and lean hog, corn and soybean meal futures prices to represent the market’s current expectations, the parameters from the Iowa State University Estimated Returns Model for wean to finish production suggest a breakeven selling price of $108.07 per cwt, which is higher than the July CME Lean Hog futures settlement price of $102.60 per cwt on Jan. 10.
Feeder pig prices outpacing expected profits derived from summer lean hog futures contracts says that other factors must also be driving feeder pig prices.
Why might feeder pig finishers pay more than breakeven prices to get feeder pigs? One reason is finishers expect market hog prices to improve and/or feed costs to dip allowing them to turn a profit.
Economics is another. Feeder pig finishers have fixed and variable costs. Operating finishing facilities below capacity spreads fixed costs over fewer hogs, which ups cost per head and erodes profit. In the short run finishers will lose less by keeping pens full as long as market hog sales will cover variable costs and leave something to apply toward fixed costs.
10-12 pound pig sales volume driver
National Direct Feeder Pig Reports show the sales volume of 10-12 pound pig sales was down 18.7% in October-December 2024 compared to October-December 2023. Formula sales were down 28%. Cash sales were down 12.9%. All else equal, fewer pigs available will lift prices.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on Dec. 23, 2024, indicated that the September-November 2024 pig crop was up 2.0% from the same quarter in 2023. It was a record pig crop for the September-November quarter. Pigs farrowed in September-November typically become October-December weaned pig sales.
Lower October-December 2024 10-12 pound pig sales volume implies the September-November 2024 pig crop might not have been as large as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated. Market hogs from a quarterly pig crop go to slaughter two quarters later. So, hog slaughter in April-June 2025 will corroborate, or refute, the reported September-November 2024 pig crop.
Could the same be true for the size of the December 2024-February 2025 pig crop, and in turn, slaughter levels for July-September 2025?
Even if pig crops are up, feeder pig sales volume may not be. Trade chatter suggests disease pressure on pigs is rising. Yet the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed the September-November 2024 average pigs saved per litter was 11.92, up from 11.66 a year earlier, and record high for the quarter (Figure 2).

Data source: USDA-NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports.
Record high litter rates seem inconsistent with increasing disease pressure. Could it be that litter rates aren’t actually this large? Could this help explain the lower 10-12 pound pig sale volume and higher price levels over the last several months?
The Butcher and Schulz working paper finds that a 1% rise in pre-weaning mortality trims the supply of cash-priced 10-12 pound pigs by 0.107%.
The Canadian feeder pig import driver
Canada sends large volumes of feeder pigs to the U.S. to be finished. The National Direct Feeder Pig Report includes pigs from Canadian Provinces. For the week ending Jan. 10, 34.5% of pigs covered by the report came from Manitoba, and 13.3% from Ontario. Iowa was the destination for 77.9% of the total volume. Note, origin and destination cannot be matched up in the report.
Each week USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service Livestock, Poultry and Grain Market News releases statistics on live animal imports from Canada. The WA_LS635 report provides Canadian live animal imports by state of entry. The WA_LS637 report provides Canadian live animal imports into the U.S. by destination.
The majority of Canadian feeder pig imports are pigs weighing less than 15.4 pounds and enter the U.S. through North Dakota. Most of the rest cross the border in Michigan with lower levels coming through Montana, New York and Maine. USDA uses a 10-region system to identify destinations for feeder pigs. Region 5 (IL IN, MI, MN, OH, WI), Region 7 (IA, KS, MO, NE) and Region 8 (CO, MT, ND, SD, UT, WY) are the primary destinations for feeder pigs. Region 7 receives over three times the feeder pig imports as Region 5 or Region 8. Feeder pig imports during the fourth quarter of 2024 were down 4.1% or 51,113 head compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Feeder pig imports to Region 7 were down 8.3% or 62,895 head. Imports to Region 8 were down 10.7% or 23,266 head. A few smaller volume regions had increases.
The feeder pig market has all three components for a fire―higher market hog profit expectations, uncertainty in the domestic pig crop, and lower feeder pig imports from Canada. The smoking hot feeder pig market seems unlikely to cool any time soon.
Understanding the data sources
Each week the Livestock, Poultry and Grain Market News Division of USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service reports feeder pig sales volume, price range and weighted average price, both on a cash and formula basis. Data is reported for two categories of pigs, early weaned pigs under 21 days old that weigh 10-12 pounds and feeder pigs that weigh 40 pounds. Most pigs traded are 10-12 pound pigs. Quoted prices are on a per head basis delivered to the buyer’s farm and include freight and fees. USDA adjusts prices by a price slide to conform to the 10-12 pound and 40 pound reporting categories.
Producers report data to USDA voluntarily for the National Direct Feeder Pig Report. Included volume covers roughly 5% of hogs raised for slaughter. Not all bought and sold pigs are included in the report. Pigs within integrated systems that are transferred inter-farm are not included. Vaccination and health program values are not included in the report but health status should be disclosed at the time of sale. Pigs included in the report may have specialty attributes that are not delineated in the report.
While USDA strives to ensure data quality and representativeness, the National Direct Feeder Pig Report probably represents trends better than absolutes. Still, the report provides important insight on future market hog supply.
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