The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs kicked off September 2024 with 76.48 million head, a half percentage larger than last year at this time, and a 2% increase from last quarter, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published Thursday by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Breeding inventory came in at 6.04 million head, up 1% from the quarter prior and a 2.2% decline from September 2023. At 70.437 million head, market hog inventory was up 1% from last year, and 2% from June 2024.

According to Lee Schulz, professor of economics and Extension economist at Iowa State University, these figures were right in line with pre-report expectations. Where the surprises came was in the market hogs and pigs by weights categories.

For the under-50-pounds weight category, there were 22.194 million head, 1.5% below from the year prior and 1.5% below pre-report expectations. In the 50-to-119 pounds group, there were 20.232 million head, down 1.3% from 2023 and down 2.2% from pre-report estimates.

In the 120-to-179-pounds group, there were 14.997 million head, up 3.5% from last year at this time and more than 2% from pre-report forecasts. Finally, for the 180-and-over group there were 13.014 million head, 4.8% higher from 2023 and 3.1% higher than pre-report expectations.

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“If you look at the current slaughter data that we have, so we have one official week in September, and then two of the estimated weeks in September, hog slaughter has been up on average 1.1%,” Schulz says. “So, we would have to see some very large hog slaughter levels for the next roughly six weeks here to realize what that 180-pound-and-over category is for USDA. For me, that is a surprise, that 180-pounds-and-over, given where current slaughter levels are at.”

Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, a 2% drop from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.959 million sows farrow between September and November 2024, a slight downturn from actual farrowings one year earlier, however a 4% reduction from the same period in 2022. Between December 2024 and February 2025, producers intend to have 2.933 million sows farrow, up marginally from 2023, but down 1% from 2022.

From June through September 2024, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.72 pigs per litter, compared to 11.61 last year. This figure was up .9% compared to a year ago and slightly lower than pre-report expectations, Schulz says. The June-August 2024 pig crop, at 35.030 million head, was 0.08% lower from the year prior, but right in line with pre-report expectations.

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“As you look at the last three quarters reported here, 2024 was the record and really this is continuation of what we've seen over the last several quarters,” Schulz says. “2019 was the record pig crop for June, August, but realizing that even as we look at the latest pig crop of just over 35 million, it's not all that far off the record, even though we're not seeing close to record levels of the breeding herd.”

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 53% of the total U.S. hog inventory, up 1% from 2023.

“This doesn't get a lot of attention, but it's in the narrative of the Hogs and Pigs Report, and it reports quarterly the percentage of total U.S. hog inventory owned by contract operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees,” Schulz says. “This data goes back to December of 1996, where it was just north of about 20%, and the latest data as of Sept. 1 was 53%. As you will note, that is the highest percentage we've seen since this data has been collected back to 1996.”

Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 25.5 million head. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.4 million head. North Carolina was third with 8.2 million head.

Related:Softer demand for U.S. pork expected to persist

To obtain an accurate measurement of the U.S. swine industry, NASS surveyed 4,535 operators across the nation during the first half of September. 

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2023 through June 2024 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1%. A revision of 0.3% was made to the March 2024-May 2024 pig crop. A net revision of 0.2% was made to the March 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory. The net revision made to the December 2023-February 2024 pig crop was 1.8%.