European Union consumption patterns are expected to change as consumers search for ways to spend less in the current economic climate, but not at the expense of food quality and safety. A slightly lower meat consumption driven by beef and pork is expected, while the consumption of plant proteins is expected to grow, according to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook report.

The European Commission publishes its outlook report at the end of every year, presenting a set of projections for the main EU agricultural sectors. The analysis relies on data available until mid-September 2024 for agricultural production and trade, based on a set of macroeconomic assumptions deemed the most plausible at the time of the analysis. 

EU pork consumption is expected to be challenged by sustainability concerns, as well as societal criticism. Pig meat production is projected to fall by 0.5% per year between the 2022-2024 average and 2035. In addition to environmental and societal concerns, the authors state the “relatively higher fat content compared to other meat types may be viewed less favorably by some consumers.” Consequently, EU per capita consumption is projected to decrease by 0.4% per year, falling to 30 kg in 2035.

While African swine fever is expected to remain in the region, the EU Commission does not foresee any major or uncontrolled outbreaks. However, EU pork exports are expected to decline between 2022/24 average and 2035 due to a recovery in production in Asian countries. Production capacity in China, the Philippines and Vietnam is expected to recover, leading to lower import demand, despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks. In contrast, the EU Commission sees increased demand for imports in the U.S., Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Switzerland and some other Asian regions.

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Over the coming decade, the authors note the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pork (replacing China) even though UK demand is expected to decrease over the projection period.

The EU market share in world trade, in volume terms is projected to change from 32% in 2022-2024 to 29% in 2035 for pig meat.

Pork prices expected to remain high. After the price spike in 2022-2023, EU pig meat prices declined in 2024 and production costs are expected to remain low in the short term. However, the authors say it is uncertain to which level they will fall back.

Overall demand for animal feed in the EU is projected to fall by 2.2% by 2035 compared to 2022-2024. The decline is attributed mainly to the EU’s reduced pork and beef production, and a slower growth of milk yields. However, a drop in feed demand for cows and pigs is also expected due to improvements in animal genetics, and more efficient and better targeted feeding systems.

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