U.S. consumers agree. Food costs too much. Where they differ is what they decide to do about it, says Melissa Rodriguez, principal at Circana.

“They're still very concerned, they think that pricing will continue to remain high, they struggle with how they're going to balance what they make and the income that they bring in, versus what goes out, energy, housing, food, etc.,” Rodriguez says. “What happens because of that is 84% of consumers are changing what they do.”

A leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior, Circana supports almost 7,000 of the world’s leading brands and retailers by providing advanced analytics, cross-industry data and professional expertise. Since the pandemic, the firm has seen some significant changes in consumer behavior.

From a food and beverage perspective, more consumers are choosing to eat at home. In fact, 86% of meals are now sourced from home. “Pre-COVID, that number was anywhere from 75 to 78%, which fluctuated based on the season, and maybe regionality,” Rodriguez says.

Consumers across every generation are now purchasing food because it is needed rather than splurging because it is part of a favorite routine or to treat themselves.

When it comes to dinner, whether it's away or a meal at home, consumers want it to be faster. Ninety percent of consumers say they want a dinner that is on the table in 30 minutes or less.

“They want simplicity, they want it in one dish. That's why sheet pan meals are a thing, one pot entrees are a thing,” Rodriguez says. “If you've seen them on TikTok, Instagram, it's all about the ease of preparing food, and then just getting it on the table faster.”

However, consumers are no longer “panic buying,” and instead shopping more, due to high prices. Rodriguez calls the purchases “fill-in trips.”

“What is happening is people would rather go every three to four days and stomach a $100 to $150 cart,” Rodriguez says. “It's the same price, when you spread it out over the course of your year shopping, you're spending the same dollars. You're not spending any less, it's just the sticker shock.”

For example, the fresh foods department now sees an average 147 trips per year per U.S. household, 11% more than three years ago and 2.3 more trips than last year.

While consumers are spending more time shopping this year, Rodriguez says traditional grocery stores are continuing to see their share of total fresh food purchases decline. Instead, consumers are turning to mass merchandisers and big box stores, as well as club stores.

Meat has not only increased in dollar sales but is actually growing for the first time in volume sales, up 1.5%, she says. “It has finally turned a corner. Because if we looked at this a year ago, it was down anywhere from 6% to 12%, depending on the category. So, the fact that we've seen some rebounding, at least at retail, from a meat perspective, is huge.”

From a dollar share perspective, produce is up 0.7 points compared to 2023, while meat remains flat. This includes pork, which is down 1%.

Rodriguez says the good news for meat is that 40% of adults are seeking more protein in their diet. Twenty-five billion pounds of meat was purchased in the last year, which netted $70.3 billion in the fresh meat department. And the average consumer consumes 59 pounds of meat per year, 76% of that during dinner time.

“So, when you think dinner, center of plate, protein or meat is really the driver. That is unchanged,” Rodriguez says.

More than 98% of consumers have purchased meat in the last year. As for meat department dynamics, beef is driving dollar growth while chicken is driving volume.

However, Rodriguez says there is a lot to be gained by being a meat destination. Ten percent of fresh meat shoppers drive over 34% of sales. The next 10% drives another 20% of sales, which means close to 50% of sales are coming from 20% of consumers.

“These people, these heavy buyers that we like to talk about, they spend nearly four times as much in a meat case than the average consumer. They spend almost $6, $7 more, and they shop nearly three times as often,” Rodriguez says.

While protein is definitely not leaving the plate, 76% of consumers are now buying less or buying differently. Many are now stretching the meat dollar and reducing waste.

Circana anticipates a subdued year for the meat department, with lower inflation, more promotions and low demand.

“It's just going to be tracking along to what we've seen over the last one to two years. We're not going to see growth like gangbusters, we're also not going to see it move the other way,” Rodriguez says. “We think that that's an okay story right now, considering certain areas of the store are seeing some pretty hard hits.”