Will election results deliver a farm bill this year?

New political landscape could spur negotiations.

Joshua Baethge, Policy editor

November 6, 2024

3 Min Read
Donald trump holding up fist after presidential victory
Getty Images/KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/Contributor

Election night couldn’t have gone better for Republicans. Voters returned Donald Trump to the White House and gave the GOP a Senate majority. While control of the House remains up in the air as of early Wednesday morning, it’s clear the political landscape will be much different in D.C. come 2025.

But what about the rest of this year? Could a lame duck president and Congress deliver a farm bill on the way out? It could just happen.

House Republican Ag Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson has made it clear he desperately wants to pass a farm bill this year. Now the Pennsylvania Republican holds more leverage, knowing a farm bill next year would go through Trump and a Republican Senate. That means House Democrats could be more willing to negotiate with their Republican counterparts. They know their negotiation position will be much weaker next year.

Sources close to Thompson say he personally wants to pass a farm bill with the committee members that have worked on the legislation over the past two years. Before Congress went on recess in October, he requested a meeting with Democrat Ranking Member David Scott, D- Ga., and Senate Ag Committee leaders Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., and John Boozman, R-Ark. to emphasize that point.

This will be Stabenow’s last chance to get a farm bill over the finish line before she retires at year’s end. Whether or not that influences her decision remains to be seen.

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Democrats still have some leverage

Conventional wisdom suggests it would be easier for Republicans to pass their preferred farm bill next year when they have more control. Still, despite now holding most of the cards, they will likely need Democrat support to pass a bill. Even if Republicans win a House majority, it will only be by a slim margin.

In May, the House Ag Committee passed a farm bill to be considered by the whole chamber. Speaker Mike Johnson never brought that bill up for a vote because he knew it wouldn’t pass. That’s because there is a small segment of hard-right Republican lawmakers who won’t support the legislation without additional spending cuts. The farm bill could only pass if Democrats crossed party lines to support it.

That dynamic won’t change if Republicans have the House majority. A new Congressional term means the farm bill would have to go through the Congressional Budget Office scoring process again. Funding levels previously agreed to could be in jeopardy.

The House Republican proposal also calls for Inflation Reduction Act funds to be moved into the farm bill. There will be less IRA money available next year, meaning lawmakers would need to find other avenues to pay for their plan.

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Suffice to say, there are plenty of reasons for both parties to prioritize a farm bill this year. Getting it done remains a daunting proposition. Congress will have a full schedule when it returns later this month. Getting a farm bill through could be too much to ask. Still, if election night is any indication, unexpected outcomes are becoming the norm in D.C.

About the Author

Joshua Baethge

Policy editor, Farm Progress

Joshua Baethge covers a wide range of government issues affecting agriculture. Before joining Farm Progress, he spent 10 years as a news and feature reporter in Texas. During that time, he covered multiple state and local government entities, while also writing about real estate, nightlife, culture and whatever else was the news of the day.

Baethge earned his bachelor’s degree at the University of North Texas. In his free time, he enjoys going to concerts, discovering new restaurants, finding excuses to be outside and traveling as much as possible. He is based in the Dallas area where he lives with his wife and two kids.

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