African swine fever has taken its toll on international feed production. According to the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey estimates, global pig feed tonnage was down 11% in 2019. The primary producing region for pig feed remains Asia-Pacific, but that region also exhibited the largest decline at 26%, with China (-35%), Cambodia (-22%), Vietnam (-21%) and Thailand (-16%) experiencing large decreases.
"2019 presented extreme challenges to the feed industry, with one of the most significant being African swine fever. The regional and global implications are reflected by the Alltech Global Feed Survey and the decline in global feed production," says Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech. "While pig feed production is down in affected countries, we are noting increased production both in other species as producers work to supplement the protein demand, and in non-affected countries as exports ramp up. The damage caused by ASF will have long-term implications, and we expect that the top protein sources will continue to shift as our industry adapts to the shortage."
Europe, North America and Latin America remained relatively stable for pig feed production compared to last year, within a percentage point's worth of gain or loss. While Africa is a small region from a tonnage standpoint for pig feed, it showed a large increase of 29%.
Total feed tonnage for all species decreased by 1.07% to 1.126 billion metric tons of feed produced last year. The top nine feed-producing countries are the U.S., China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Spain, Japan and Germany. Together, these countries produce 58% of the world's feed production and contain 57% of the world's feed mills, and they can be viewed as an indicator of overall trends in agriculture.
The global data, collected from 145 countries and nearly 30,000 feed mills, indicates feed production by species as: broilers 28%; pigs 24%; layers 14%; dairy 12%; beef 10%; other species 6%; aquaculture 4%; and pets 2%. Predominant growth came from the layer, broiler, aqua and pet feed sectors.
For North America, the U.S. is the largest feed-producing country globally with an estimated 214 million metric tons, with beef (61.09 MMT), broilers (48.525 MMT) and pigs (44.86 MMT) as the leading species. North America saw steady growth of 1.6% over last year. Canada produced 21.6 MMT with pigs (8.23 MMT), broilers (3.25 MMT) and dairy (4.2 MMT) leading species feed production.
The Asia-Pacific region saw feed production decrease by 5.5% in 2019, primarily due to ASF and large declines in pig feed production. China's feed production declined by almost 20 MMT of feed overall to 167.9 MMT and fell from the top feed-producing country globally to second, behind the U.S. India and Japan remained in the top nine feed-producing countries, with similar production compared to 2018 with 39.0 MMT and 25.3 MMT, respectively, while Vietnam declined by 7%.
The Alltech Global Feed Survey assesses compound feed production and prices through information collected by Alltech’s global sales team and in partnership with local feed associations in the last quarter of 2019. It is an estimate serving as a resource for policymakers, decision-makers and industry stakeholders.