Legislative Watch: Voter attitudes; Trans-Pacific Partnership approved; US-Japan trade agreement public comments.

P. Scott Shearer, Vice President

November 2, 2018

3 Min Read
Midterm momentum: Now is the time for voters to decide
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It's time to vote. Both parties are pulling out all the stops for Tuesday’s election which will determine who controls the House of Representatives and the Senate. President Trump is barn-storming the Midwest and Midsouth battleground states of Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and West Virginia which have very close races for Senate or Governor. 

Early indications are there will be a higher turnout this midterm election compared to the past. A number of states are reporting heavy early voting. Some states have all ready received more absentee ballots than they did in total for the 2014 election. 

Voter attitudes
As the voters go to the polls, what are they saying about the direction of the country, President Trump and Congress? Real Clear Politics does a compilation of various polls for an average. They show voter attitudes on the following:

  • Direction of the country – 40% believe the country is headed in the right direction and 54% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

  • Trump favorability – 42% have a favorable attitude towards President Trump while 54% have an unfavorable attitude.

  • Trump’s job approval – 44% approve of Trump’s job performance and 53% disapprove of his job performance.

  • Congressional job approval – 19% have a favorable opinion of Congress while 72% have an unfavorable opinion.

House of Representatives
The House of Representatives is the best chance for a Democratic takeover. With a large number of Republican Congressional retirements, Democrats are favored in a number of these open seats. 

Democrats need to gain 23 seats to take control of the House. Their best chances in picking up seats are in California, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. They also have a chance in a few Midwest states. 

There are approximately 78 competitive House races with 11 Democratic seats considered competitive compared to 67 Republican seats. 

Senate
Republicans currently control the Senate 51-49. The latest polls show they could increase their margin by 1-3 seats. The problem for Democrats is there are 10 Democratic Senators running for re-election in states carried by Trump in 2016. Going into Tuesday’s election there are number of closely watched Senate races: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota and West Virginia. 

Now it is time for the voters to decide. If history is our guide there will be a few upsets in the House and Senate that were not anticipated and some polls were wrong. The key will be which party does the best job in turning out its voters.

Remember to GO VOTE!

Trans-Pacific Partnership approved 
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP-11 will go into effect the end of this year, now that six of the 11 countries have officially approved. Those approving are Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore. Peru, Chile, Brunei, Vietnam and Malaysia are expected to approve the agreement.

The first tariff cuts will go into effect on Dec. 30. Since the trade agreement becomes effective this year, a second round of tariff cuts will occur on Jan. 1, 2019, for countries that agreed to phase in tariff reductions on a calendar-year basis. Japan's second round of tariff cuts won't apply until April 1, 2019.

President Trump pulled out of the TPP in January 2017. 

US-Japan trade agreement public comments
The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced it is accepting written public comments to develop U.S. positions regarding the upcoming trade negotiations with Japan. The comments are due Nov. 26. There will be a public hearing on the negotiations on Dec. 10. 

About the Author(s)

P. Scott Shearer

Vice President, Bockorny Group, Inc.

Scott Shearer is vice president of the Bockorny Group Inc., a leading bipartisan government affairs consulting firm in Washington, D.C. With more than 30 years experience in government and corporate relations in state and national arenas, he is recognized as a leader in agricultural trade issues, having served as co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for U.S.-China Trade and co-chairman of the Agricultural Coalition for Trade Promotion Authority. Scott was instrumental in the passage of China Permanent Normal Trade Relations and TPA. He is past chairman of the USDA-USTR Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Animals and Animal Products and was a member of the USAID Food Security Advisory Committee. Prior to joining the Bockorny Group, Scott served as director of national relations for Farmland Industries Inc., as well as USDA’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Congressional Affairs (1993-96), serving as liaison for the Secretary of Agriculture and the USDA to Congress.

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