USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released this week lowers the prospects for feedgrain supplies as delayed plantings reduce yield prospects for corn.
Projected corn production is lowered 135 million bushels to 14.0 billion bushels. Average yield is projected at 156.5 bushels per acre, a drop of 1.5 bushels from last month’s projections.
Adverse cool, wet conditions in late May and early June coupled with projected seasonally warmer temperatures and drier conditions in late July could affect pollination and kernel set in a larger share of this year’s crop.
With reduced production prospects, domestic corn usage is projected 70 million bushels lower for 2013-2014. Projected feed and residual disappearance is lowered 125 million bushels with the smaller crop, higher expected prices and increased availability of distiller’s grains.
Corn-ending stocks for 2013-2014 are estimated 55 million bushels lower. Still, at the projected 1.9 billion bushels, ending stocks are expected to be 2.5 times the level of carryover for 2012-2013.
The season-ending average farm price range for corn is raised 10 cents per bushel on each end to $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel.
U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013-2014 remain unchanged from last month. The 2013-2014 season average price for soybeans is projected at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 to $330/ton, up $10 on both ends of the price range.
The forecast for total meat production in 2013 is increased from last month as higher beef and broiler production has more than offset lower pork production, the WASDE report indicated.
Pork production in the second quarter is lowered due to declining hog slaughter and slightly lower expected carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released June 28 will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year.
Read the full WASDE report at www.usda.gov ; click on Agency Reports.
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