USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2021, also known as the USDA Baseline, was released at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. It shows varying prospects for livestock and poultry exports.
But clearly evident is USDA’s projection that pork will be the largest winner, with an estimated increase of 553,300 tons for U.S. pork exports during that period. That’s more than twice the increase of the other export groups combined, according to today’s Daily Livestock Report by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, sponsored by the CME Group.
Pork exports by Canada, Brazil and China also increase during the period, but at a much slower rate.
For their part, U.S. beef exports show definite growth trends, but are noticeably outflanked by increasing shipments globally by Brazil and Asia. India is the primary driver of beef export growth by Asian countries. USDA actually expects Asia to be the world’s largest beef supplier this year before being displaced by Brazil in 2013. U.S. beef export growth is tempered by lower cattle numbers available for both domestic consumption and export in 2013.
USDA expects Brazil to separate itself from the United States to become the dominant leader in poultry exports this year and for each year through 2021. Both chicken and turkey are included in the poultry data but chicken dominates the category.
In calculating the export projections, USDA assumes the U.S. population will continue to grow at a rate of 0.9%, but that the rate will slow to 0.8% starting in 2015 and continue at that rate until the end of the forecast period.
The value of the U.S. dollar is also expected to fall during the forecast period.