Joe Vansickle, Senior Editor

June 19, 2013

2 Min Read
Second-Quarter Pork Production Holds Steady

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook for June 18 has revised its second-quarter forecast for pork production to 5.52 billion pounds, about even with production for the second quarter in 2012.

The change is due to a smaller-than-expected June hog slaughter and slightly lower average dressed weights.

U.S. commercial pork production in 2013 is anticipated to reach 23.4 billion pounds, about a percentage point higher than last year.

USDA forecasts second-quarter average price of 51-52% lean live equivalent hogs to be $63-64/cwt., about 3% higher than a year ago.

USDA predicts that hog prices in 2013 will average $59-$61/cwt., about 1% below the average annual price last year.

For 2014, pork production is forecast at 24 billion pounds, and prices are expected to average $56-$60/cwt.

Exports Lower

In April, U.S. pork exports declined by almost 397 million pounds or about 12% lower than a year ago. The majority of the reduction was attributed to continued demand weakness in major Asian markets.

For example, exports to Japan fell by almost 9% compared to a year ago, based on yen depreciation, slightly higher domestic pork production and increased imports of U.S. beef. China/Hong Kong bought about 39% less U.S. pork than a year ago due to adequate domestic supplies. U.S. export data indicates about one-third less U.S. pork was exported to South Korea in April than a year ago.

In contrast, Canada and Mexico imported more U.S. pork products in April compared with a year ago. Shipments to Mexico climbed to almost 98 million pounds in April, approximately 12% higher than a year ago. And pork exports to Canada increased 3.5% year-over-year to 40.7 million pounds. The two U.S. trading partners accounted for about 35% of U.S. pork exports in April.

In all, second-quarter pork exports are projected to total 1.23 billion pounds, nearly 6% below a year ago. For 2013, pork exports are expected to reach about 5 billion pounds, 6.6% below a year ago. In 2014, pork exports are expected to rebound by 4.5% compared with the forecast for 2013.

Swine imports in April were at almost 427,000 head, all of which originated from Canada. The 8% reduction in volume was mainly in heavy feeder pigs – 51 to 110 lb. Segregated early weaned pig imports also dropped by 2%.

In the second quarter, USDA projects U.S. swine imports to total 1.340 million head, 7% below a year ago. For 2013, about 5% less or 5.396 million head are to be imported.    

 

About the Author(s)

Joe Vansickle

Senior Editor

Joe, a native of Indiana, is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, MN, with a bachelor’s degree in journalism. He worked on daily newspapers in Albert Lea, MN and Fairmont, MN, before joining the staff of National Hog Farmer in 1977. Joe specializes in animal health issues, federal regulations, environmental concerns, food safety and writing about the swine veterinary community. Joe has won several writing awards from the Livestock Publications Council. In 2002, he earned the Master Writer Program Award from the American Agricultural Editors’ Association.

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