The market herd was estimated to have been 3.7% smaller than one year ago on March 1. Weight category inventories suggest that summer 2014 slaughter will run from 2 to 4% lower than year-ago levels. These numbers are important in that, when combined with higher slaughter weights seen this year and expected this summer, they would result in summer pork production very close to that of 2013. So, this report implies that any increase in prices would have to be demand-driven.

The market herd inventories do not reflect the sharp declines in slaughter that have been witnessed in March, and do not fit with the September-November pig crop.  USDA’s 180-pound and over inventory was 4.8% lower than one year ago, while March weekly slaughter totals have been, on average, 6.7% lower.  Further, those sharply lower slaughter totals come from a September-November pig crop that is still estimated by USDA to be the same size as one year earlier. 

The breeding herd is estimated to have numbered 5.851 million head on March 1. That is 0.3% larger than one year ago and nearly 1 full percentage point larger than analysts had expected. It is also 94,000 head larger than on December 1. The University of Missouri reports that gilt slaughter through the first 10 weeks of 2014 was 0.2% larger. Q1 slaughter of U.S. sows (i.e. omitting Canadian sows) was down 2.5% or just 14,000 head from last year. We don’t see how those figures would add up to 94,000 more sows.

The December-February pig crop is estimated at 27.316 million head, 2.8% lower than last year.  That total is driven lower by sharply smaller litters (9.53 pigs, down 5.5% from last year and the smallest since the December-February crop reported in the March 2009 report) but is increased by farrowings estimated to be 2.8% LARGER than one year ago – from a breeding herd that was 1% smaller on December 1, and virtually even with last year on March 1.In addition, intended farrowings from that herd are up 2.4% and 2% the next two quarters. All of those farrowing numbers look large versus the herd size, but there could be some increases driven by odd re-breeding patterns for sows that lost litters to PEDV. They could, I suppose, be possible.

Finally, USDA’s state-level production data indicates December-February pig crops in Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois – three states hit particularly hard by PEDV this winter -- are 2%, 5% and 3% LARGER than last year. Those data are in sharp disagreement with anecdotal evidence from producers, packers and veterinarians in those states, and with state-by-state PEDV case accession data published by the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV).  Further, they do not seem to fit breeding herd, farrowing and litter-size data for the past three quarters (See Figure 2). In fact, the only state among those most hard-hit by PEDV for which USDA’s data appears reasonable is North Carolina.  So anyone who thinks this has anything to do with “the big guys” not cooperating should probably think again.